The title says it all: US Portfolio Strategy 2012 Outlook Strategies for Stagnation, From Goldman's David Kostin
Index: Our year-end 2012 S&P 500 target equals 1250
Economy: Stagnant US economy growing by 1.5% in 2012 and 2.2% in 2013; low inflation; low interest rates.
Earnings: We forecast operating EPS of $100 in 2012 and $106 in 2013 (bottom-up consensus is $108 and $119).
Valuation: Historical precedent suggests stable P/E ratio of 11.8x in 2012. DDM supports our 12-month target
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