Citi's Englander On What Can Go Wrong In The Next 11 Days?

1) Regional Fed presidents are talking hawkish but markets are pricing dovish.






Expectations of fed actions have retraced sharply since March. Consider the path of the October 2014 fed funds futures rate (right now the first fed funds contract that prices in a full hike, Figure 1). With the exception of a brief period immediately after the January FOMC, fed funds futures now price in the lowest path of Fed policy rates on record.

Now consider the risks that accompany

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